Digital Media in 2009 will obviously be much different than it was in 2008.  Here's what I think are the top 3 SWOT's:

Strengths:


1) Digital delivery will continue to be stronger and better.  HD will become the norm.  Cameras will be on nearly every device.  Pipes need to get wider, faster, and more robust in order to keep up with the demand and volume of content.  We'll never forget another image again.  Heck, mash up your web cam eyeball with Twitter and we won't forget what we were thinking either. 

2) With more and more video game consoles into homes, a way to get the web onto your television.  Wii recently announced video on demand.  We'll see ways to utilize the Wii, xBox and PS3, to deliver a new interactive experience to the home.  One that combines video and video games.  One that the cable companies have been dreaming of for years....

3) Mash up-ability.   Platforms understand the importance of APIs as a way to solidify their place in the market.  There are hundreds of Twitter derivatives built on the Twitter API, thousands of iPhone and Facebook applications, and hundreds of applications using the YouTube API.  The extraction of data from the original platform not only cements the platform's importance, but it also spurs innovation and interesting derivative works.  Twitter meets iPhone meets YouTube could mean that you are never further away from your friends are doing or seeing than the nearest free Wifi spot.




Weaknesses:


1) With the easing of costs (an HD flip camera is less than $200), more and more content will be flooding the market.  Without a curator, it will be more and more difficult to match audiences with content.  With the average video on YouTube being viewed twice, consumers are having a tough time finding content that they want to see.  The glut of content will hopefully spur rise to many types of filters, either algorithmically or human, that will become the new aggregators built off of original platforms...

2) Weak storytelling and lack of production concepts will make consumers yearn for the "good old days" when the camera was steady, the actor wasn't reading his lines, and you could actually see the subject's face.  Even the new post production tools can't fix poor storytelling skills, although Zombie Nation's special effects probably saved that movie from being a total bomb....maybe.

3) Money flow - the rich get richer.  There will be a few players at the head of the Long Tail and then a ton of content sputtering around the tail of the Tail.  More money will be thrown into publicity and marketing for the top players and the divide will become greater.  Why is this a weakness?  For $10 million dollar films, there is the inability to compete with what Hollywood wants to make a blockbuster.  Good independent films will get lost in the mix.  Even with the buzz that Slumdog Millionaire (5 weeks ~$20m) is getting, its Box office will still dwarf Marley and Me (1 week ~ $37m).


Opportunities:


1) Creativity with the emergence of digital storytelling.  Interactivity with storytelling.  We've seen from This month's Wired magazine this beginning to happen once and twice.  Klickable Video.  Choose your own adventure.  Contextual and targeted storytelling.  Customized endings.  With a database, digital distribution, and inexpensive quality footage, the opportunities are endless.  And too much for me to write on this page.

2) Edutainment / infotainment will be a huge opportunity.   The Geico Cavemen were too in your face about it.  Diet Coke and Mentos was not.  Many will do this wrong but some will succeed and while many will want to copy, they won't know what the secret sauce is (and neither will the creators!).

3) Making money.  Less power from video aggregators as more and more content owners remove content from YouTube and place on their own sites.  Making money on video content will be the primary focus of 09.  While audience are on sites like YouTube, YouTube will become a haven for discovery.  For watching established content, creators will most likely put teasers on YouTube with full length or rich features available only on their own sites...


Threats:


1) Exhibitors will again be threatened.  Will theaters go away?  Absolutely not.  But going to the movies will need to once again be the "event" that it was back in the golden age of the 30's and 40's.  Therefore we'll see more blockbusters and less mid tail content (weakness #3).  Hollywood will find it inefficient to create $10 million dollar movies in favor for $100 million + films that also require $100 million of P&A (prints and advertising).  We'll see a dramatic closing of exhibitors down to a few locations (major cities, Imax viewing experiences, old classic theaters like the Ziegfeld).
 
2) Piracy will continue to be a problem as there still will not be a ubiquitious guaranteed way to pull off pirated content.  Holding on to old ways however, will simply stifle innovation.  What if producers were paid on each view of their content as opposed to getting people to pay for each view?  Piracy would then be a moot point.

3) Google - Will google continue to play neutral?  They have the manpower and the clout to redirect our searches to anything they want (or rather anything they own).  Will they play fair?  Will they continue to focus on their core business (search) as opposed to the broader game of the Internet?  Will start ups and innovators continue to live in fear of the search giant that has pressed margins down to zero?

Well I guess we will see what happens in 2009!